Arrivals vs Occupancy
St. Maarten’s arrival figures for the first half of the year as published in our Saturday edition give cause for some concern, especially pertaining to the second quarter. The US, by far the biggest market, showed a small decrease in April, May and June compared to the year before, after a fairly stable first quarter.
The second biggest market, Europe, saw a decrease in all of the first six months of the year except May, while April was the only month with an increase for the Caribbean market and March the only plus month for the South American market. The “rest of the world” (including Canada) even saw a decline in all six months.
By contrast, the occupancy figures for both hotels and timeshare resorts on the Dutch side were up during all six months except June, when they were exactly equal to the year before. This would seem to indicate that things are actually going pretty well.
How is that possible? First of all, occupancy figure are based on available rooms. When a number of them are unavailable, as was the case with (part of) Great Beach Resort during the first part of the year, it will make the occupancy figures rise.
But that’s not all. Princess Juliana International Airport is also the main gateway for the French side and surrounding islands, so that a decline in arrivals does not necessarily reflect the number of tourists who stay on the Dutch side.
More detailed figures from the airport are needed to be sure, but observers expect that in this case many visitors who normally stay on the French side or even St. Barths have switched to the Dutch side because of the high euro compared to the US dollar (and consequently the Antillean guilder). In the last months all types of Dutch side businesses have also reported increased sales to people from the French side paying with euros, simply because they get more for their money.
While this trend may be welcomed on the Dutch side, it is something that warrants concern in the long run. After all, it is one island and considered a single tourism destination, to which having a Dutch side and a French side simply adds a special dimension.
Should tourism-related businesses start closing or scaling down in numbers on the French side, it would ultimately hurt the product as a whole. Not only that, but the economies of the two sides are so interwoven that a lasting downturn on one side cannot but have a social impact on the other side sooner or later.
All in all, the arrival figures, also considering the current cutback in American Airlines flights and relatively high airfares from the US, do not give rise to optimism, even if the occupancy figures do. With a large number of tourism accommodations either under construction or in the planning, the latter could quickly change. Under the circumstances, the status quo is not enough. Continued growth is required.
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