Don’t get confused
Analyses and subsequent prognoses about the state of the economy are not the easiest of undertakings. Take reports in St. Maarten’s media yesterday. The St. Maarten Hospitality and Trade Association (SHTA), quoting findings by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation, informed the public that tourism had showed a 1.6 per cent decline for the island in the first four months of the year. As might be expected, such news evokes all sorts of reactions ranging from gloom and doom to calls for a change of market orientation. In turn, such responses may very well confuse people and undermine general confidence in the future.
At least two remarks are called for.
First the reliability of the presented figures must be ascertained. How were they obtained? To what type of tourism do they apply? How many travelled on to other destinations? The SHTA was precise enough to note that the underlying statistical data were limited. Therefore, care has to be taken when drawing conclusions.
However, two things seem clear. Tourism is experiencing substantial growth worldwide and is showing a slight dip on St. Maarten. So “slight,” in fact, that a gloom and doom conclusion is neither here nor there. As one player on the local tourism market observed, “We may simply have misdirected our advertising.” Another reason could be the lack of hotel rooms, real hotel rooms that is. And what about the impact of the high euro on the French side? The lack of adequate data makes all of this a calculated guess. For a call to redirect the industry to the high class markets it is in any case no ground. We are predominantly a timeshare island, which after all is not a bad predicament. What the 1.6 per cent figure shows is that we can do better.
Another report published in The Miami Herald, also yesterday, sees substantial “economic” growth (five per cent) for the entire Caribbean region. From all appearances St. Maarten shares in that upward mode. In brief: there is every reason for confidence, no reason to be confused.
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