Forecasters see less active
2006 hurricane season
WASHINGTON--The Atlantic hurricane season will be slightly less intense this year than first predicted, with up to nine hurricanes expected to form, U.S. government forecasters said Tuesday. However, they warned the most dangerous part of the season was still to come.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the 2006 season could produce 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes and three or four of them being classified as “major” hurricanes.
Forecasters said similar hurricane seasons had generated two or three storms that made landfall in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
“This year’s three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine storms that formed through early August 2005, but conditions will be favourable for above-normal activity for the rest of this season, so we are not off the hook by any means,” said NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher.
In May, NOAA predicted this hurricane season would produce 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour (179 km per hour) or higher.
U.S. weather forecasters, including the Colorado State University team led by Philip Klotzbach, who took over this year from Professor William Gray, all have cut their outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season during the last week due in part to cooler-than-expected ocean surface temperatures. But water temperatures remain above normal and are expected to combine with favourable wind patterns to produce an above-average hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which ends on November 30, typically peaks between August 1 and late October. The average hurricane season generates 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major storms.
Unlike a year ago, the absence of La Niña, an unusual cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, helped reduce the number of early season storms that developed in June and July.
“Conditions this year reflect a more typical active season, with peak activity expected during August-October,” said Gerry Bell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist.
Last year generated 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes. A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage.
A study funded by NOAA and public and private groups found that 56 per cent of 1,100 coastal residents surveyed do not feel vulnerable to a hurricane and 13 per cent said they might not or would not evacuate even if they were ordered to do so.
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