WASHINGTON--The likely exit of top aide Rahm Emanuel gives U.S. President Barack Obama the chance to make broader staff changes as his Republican rivals look set for a resurgence in November's congressional elections.
The prospect of Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the Nov. 2 elections would force Obama to move in a more centrist policy direction as he lays the groundwork for his 2012 re-election bid.
Emanuel, Obama's hard-charging chief of staff, has made no secret that he is considering a run for mayor in his hometown of Chicago, although he has not made a decision yet.
Other personnel changes are expected after the November elections, where Democrats fear a disastrous showing amid voter discontent as the United States emerges slowly from its worst economic downturn since the 1930s with unemployment persistently near 10 percent. Democratic sources say White House economic adviser Larry Summers may leave sometime within the next several months but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is likely to stay on.
"Rahm Emanuel is sort of the keystone that holds the entire team together. You pull that architectural piece out and you've got to rearrange the structure," said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey. "Whether they are dealing with enhanced Republican minorities or outright Republican majorities, (Emanuel's replacement) is going to have to be somebody who is not too ideological, who is willing to pursue a more centrist course and who is willing to work on bipartisan initiatives."
Obama has a tendency to rely heavily on a small coterie of close aides for advice. Many political analysts believe some fresh thinking and a reshuffled staff might help him arrest the slide in his popularity and bolster his relationships with Congress and the business community.
"There is an opportunity to bring people in and recharge the White House," said Christopher Arterton, a political science professor at George Washington University. Not all of the difficulties can be attributed to management problems, he said, because much has resulted from the state of the economy Obama inherited.
Big-ticket legislative items such as healthcare reform and the overhaul of financial regulations have dominated Obama's first two years in office--with Republicans almost unfailingly trying to block his way. The second half of his four-year term may require more agility as he seeks to work with Republicans on issues such as reining in huge budget deficits and creating jobs while implementing the landmark reforms he has already passed.
Emanuel is known as a centrist Democrat but any of the candidates to replace him are likely bring a lower-key style. "He has a combination of coarseness and finesse that can't be duplicated very easily," Baker said.